On the day of the Cotto-Pacquiao announcement, it may seem like old news to be posting about Mayweather-Marquez. But over here at BOD, the line moves with the smart money and not the flashy headlines. Since the early odds are being sliced and diced by the big books, now is the time to lean on your guy and do some front-running. Here are the winning Principles and Platitudes for September 19th.
The Bookie: Play the macro trends like a fiddle. A fight like this draws out emotional money and the low hanging fruit will be there for the taking. Floyd’s un-retirement coupled with Mexico’s Independence Day means any successful strategy will hinge on when you get in the books. With Marquez sitting at +300, take anything down to +250 while you can and wait for the props to come out before offsetting.
The Noise: Pre-fight is all about 3M (Money Mouth Mayweather). Don’t let the back story affect your moves. Marquez is no joke and his two fights against pound-for-pound king Pacquiao showed he can wear Cinderella’s slipper. 3M will have his hands full with a counterpuncher of equal rank, as well as a weight limit leaving him Koo-Koo for Coco puffs at the training table. Mayweather hasn’t fought this tape since Gatti, and that was with a faster twitch and sprier legs. Marquez has wanted this fight for years and will be treating it as his Everest. 3M sees it as a tune-up.
The Action: Now is the time to take odds on Marquez. If you like Mayweather, keep your money off the table. These fighters are surgeons, not brawlers. The exotics will be anything but, so timing is important. Look for the CompuBox props to give you the most upside.
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